The Villans Defy Logic Once More as Winning Run Rolls On at Chelsea

It simply cannot go on. The logic defies rational sense that it persists. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered the weekend's top-flight encounter at Chelsea looking to equal a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, matching runs set in the distant past. For much of the match, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as the hosts dominated proceedings, took the lead, and could have added to their advantage. But, Chelsea are frailty with a lead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a remarkable habit of snatching wins on the road after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball ricocheting in off his leg and the post following his first effort was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he secured the winner with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. The forward might believe a bit of luck was overdue, and there's no question the first goal had a large slice of good fortune. Currently, though, Lady Luck is smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Behind an Implausible Streak

Nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a single goal. They have managed a clean sheet in just one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been better in just six of those fixtures, and in two of those, the advantage was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This formula should not, yet pundits have been saying that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will finally align with their displays or if their level of play can rise to match the results.

This should not be possible, but everyone has been saying that for a while and Villa continue winning.

A Core Characteristic: Belief

Fighting back is not just a feature of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no team has gained more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those have been secured this season, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed 9 goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they are convinced they can do it again.
• Second, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at influencing games with his substitutions.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea had the better of the xG battle 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Watkins came on for Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs in behind created issues. Amadou Onana and Sancho also entered, bolstering the center and adding the width they had eschewed earlier.

Chelsea had 10 shots to Villa's none before the substitutions; following them, Villa had eleven opportunities to Chelsea's four. By the end, Villa were commanding and could have won by a greater margin. Not for the first time, opposing manager Maresca struggled to respond as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is more proficient at devising a game plan with time to prepare than making adjustments on the fly.

Moment of Magic

Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of players producing moments of match-winning quality to turn games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a seasonal theme. It was the winger who transformed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's seldom the entire team playing brilliantly, but sufficient individuals within it stepping up to earn the victories.

The Road Ahead

Can they maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season nears its midway point, they have to be considered as part of the title race, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. The upcoming away game at Arsenal will be a significant test of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG forty percent higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

Arsenal have assembled their own sequence of narrow victories, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a challenge for both teams – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their title credentials.